City trajectory · 2026 edition

What is changing in McKinney?

A city-level read on the people, prices, projects, and tradeoffs shaping where you might buy next.

Typical home value

$473K

3-mo median $474K

School rating

8.3 / 10

STAAR 2024-25

Commute to DTX

38 min

Estimated drive

Population

202,314

Historic downtown, rapid growth, room to run

The bottom line

The bottom line for McKinney

McKinney's "regional sovereign" thesis is no longer aspirational—it's executing. The airport terminal is 80% complete, interior walls are up, the aircraft apron is nearly finished, and Avelo Airlines is confirmed as the launch carrier with operations targeting pre-Thanksgiving 2026. Cannon Beach is under construction. The Northern Frontier—once just a housing frontier—is getting its first Kroger-anchored retail center (Custer Frontier Marketplace, 123K SF, broke ground February 2026) and a new Texas Health hospital (60 beds, opening 2028). CapRock Partners is building 250K SF of Class A industrial at the Air Business Park. McKinney is no longer pitching a vision of self-sufficiency—it's pouring concrete on it.

The only caveat: the housing market hasn't kept pace with the ambition. Most McKinney ZIPs are showing 7-9% YoY price declines with days on market stretching to 60-85 days. The infrastructure is arriving faster than the demand signal. This is a city building ahead of the curve—which is either visionary or premature depending on how 2027 shakes out.

02 · The full report

Follow the decision

01The investment thesisWhy capital is moving here, and what that changes for buyers.
02Growth trajectoryPopulation, development phase, and the projects changing the map.
03Infrastructure + connectivityThe roads, rail, water, and obligations behind the growth.
04Schools deep-diveDistrict shifts, campus stability, and the enrollment story.
05Where to buyNeighborhood zones, price bands, upside, and buyer traps.
06Market dynamics + risksPricing power, hidden costs, and what could change the thesis.
Read the full deep dive

03 · At a glance

The facts behind the read

Profile context · 2024 est.

Current read

Historic downtown, rapid growth, room to run

Population

202,314

2024 est.

Typical home value

$473K

3-mo median: $474K

School rating

8.3 / 10

STAAR 2024-25

Property tax rate

2.12%

2024-25

Median HH income

$120K

2023

Commute to DTX

38 min

est.

Median age

37 years

2023

Families with kids

42%

2023

Owner-occupied

78%

2023

Demographics

White 52%Hispanic 17%Asian 14%Black 12%Other 5%

Sources: Census Bureau, Zillow Research, Realtor.com Research, GreatSchools, County Assessor, Google Maps, and Census ACS. Dates shown by field.

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