Every North Dallas suburb sells itself on schools. But what happens when voters stop approving bonds?
The Setup
Here's a pattern that should concern homebuyers: school districts across North Dallas are asking for bigger and bigger bonds, while voters are getting pickier about saying yes.
Frisco ISD asked for $1.08 billion in 2024. Voters rejected it.
Prosper ISD asked for $94 million for a stadium. Voters rejected it.
Carroll ISD asked for athletics facilities. Voters rejected it.
Southlake voters passed a VATRE (tax rate increase) but rejected capital bonds for buildings.
Something is shifting in the voter psychology of wealthy suburbs. And if you're buying a home based on the assumption that your district will always have the resources to maintain its premium, you should understand what's happening.
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Take the quizThe Numbers Tell the Story
Let's look at the bond landscape across North Dallas ISDs:
| District | Recent Bond | Amount | Result | What It Tells You |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frisco ISD | 2024 | $1.08B | REJECTED | Taxpayer fatigue after $1.4B (2023) |
| Prosper ISD | 2024 | $94M (stadium) | REJECTED | "Core functions first" signal |
| Carroll ISD | 2024/2025 | Facilities | REJECTED (2x) | Voters want teachers, not buildings |
| Allen ISD | 2024 | $419M | Passed | Fiscal discipline = trust maintained |
| Plano ISD | 2023 | $650M | Passed | Rehabilitation, not expansion |
| Celina ISD | 2025 | $2.29B | Passed | Growth so fast they have no choice |
The pattern isn't "voters hate schools." It's more nuanced: voters are willing to fund operational needs (teacher salaries, class sizes) but increasingly skeptical of capital projects (new buildings, stadiums, facilities).
Southlake's Carroll ISD is the clearest example. The VATRE (Voter-Approved Tax Rate Election) passed in November 2025 with 57.68% support—that funds operations and teacher raises. But the facilities bond failed. Voters said: pay the people, don't build the buildings.
Why This Is Happening
Three forces are converging:
1. Property values have spiked, so tax bills are huge.
A homeowner with a $1 million house in Carroll ISD is already paying ~$11,800/year in property taxes (and 34% of that gets "recaptured" to the state under Robin Hood). When the district asks for another bond, the homeowner does the math and asks: "How much more can I absorb?"
2. Enrollment is plateauing or declining in mature suburbs.
Frisco ISD's enrollment peaked in 2023. The district is now projecting a decline of 7,000 students by 2029—a 10% drop. Plano ISD just closed four campuses. Richardson ISD rebuilt instead of expanded.
When enrollment is flat or declining, it's hard to justify building new schools. Voters notice.
3. The "build it and they will come" era is ending.
During hypergrowth, bonds were easy sells: "We need 5 new elementary schools or classrooms will overflow." Now the pitch is: "We need to renovate 20-year-old facilities." That's a harder emotional sell, even if it's equally important.
What This Means for Homebuyers
School district reputation is one of the biggest drivers of home values in North Texas. If a district can't fund capital improvements, the physical condition of campuses decays—and eventually, that affects the premium you paid.
Here's how to think about it:
Districts with recent bond failures are in "capital stress."
Frisco ISD's rejected $1.08B bond means renovation projects get deferred. The district saved $30M by closing Staley Middle School—but that's a band-aid. If another bond fails in 2026 or 2027, Frisco ISD starts falling behind peers in facility quality.
Districts with voter trust are in better shape.
Allen ISD has 30 years of consecutive tax rate cuts and a history of early debt payoff. That fiscal discipline builds voter trust. When Allen asks for $419M, voters believe it's necessary and well-managed.
Plano ISD passed a $650M bond by framing it as "rehabilitation"—fixing what exists, not building new. That messaging worked because Plano voters see a mature district maintaining its assets.
Districts where "Robin Hood" recaptures a high percentage are structurally challenged.
Carroll ISD sends 34% of local tax revenue to the state. Residents pay high bills, but the money doesn't stay local. That creates resentment when the district asks for more.
The District-by-District Reality
| District | Fiscal Health | Capital Funding | Homebuyer Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Allen ISD | Strong (30 years of rate cuts) | Adequate | Safe bet |
| Plano ISD | Solid (bond passed, rehab focus) | Adequate | Safe bet |
| Frisco ISD | Stressed (bond rejected, closures) | At risk | Monitor closely |
| Prosper ISD | Mixed (growth absorbs debt, but stadium rejected) | Adequate for now | Watch for operational pressure |
| Carroll ISD | Challenging (VATRE passed, capital failed) | At risk | Physical plant may degrade |
| Celina ISD | Unusual (massive bond passed within rate) | Well-funded | Safe bet |
The Prosper Paradox
Prosper ISD deserves special mention because it illustrates the tension.
The district passed a $2.7 billion bond in 2023—one of the largest in Texas. They're building multiple new campuses (Richland HS opened August 2025, HS #5 projected for 2028). The growth is so fast that property value increases absorb the debt without raising the tax rate.
But voters still rejected the $94 million stadium proposition. The message: fund the schools, not the extras.
This is sustainable as long as Prosper keeps growing at 30 residents per day. If growth slows—and eventually it will—the same tax base supports the same debt load with less value growth to cushion it.
What Smart Buyers Do
- •
Check bond history before buying. Look at the last 2-3 bond elections. Were they approved or rejected? By what margin? A pattern of narrow approvals or rejections signals voter fatigue.
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Look at enrollment trends. Growing enrollment = easier to pass bonds. Declining enrollment = harder to justify new spending.
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Check "recapture" rates. Districts that send a high percentage of tax revenue to the state (Carroll, Southlake, Highland Park) have less local control over their fiscal destiny.
- •
Consider the age of facilities. A home zoned to a 5-year-old school has less capital risk than one zoned to a 25-year-old school awaiting renovation.
- •
Don't assume the "premium" is permanent. The Frisco ISD premium is real today—but if the district can't fund capital needs and competitor districts catch up, that premium compresses.
The Bottom Line
School bond fatigue is a leading indicator, not a lagging one. By the time facility quality visibly declines, the problem has been building for years.
The districts best positioned are those with fiscal discipline (Allen ISD), voter trust (Plano ISD), or hypergrowth that absorbs debt (Celina ISD, for now).
The districts to watch are those with recent bond failures (Frisco ISD), recapture pressure (Carroll ISD), or operational strain (PISD after growth slows).
Your home value is tied to your district's ability to fund itself. Check the bond history before you check the school ratings.
Sources: Frisco ISD Enrollment Projections, Prosper ISD 2023 Bond Program, Carroll ISD 2025 VATRE Results, Allen ISD Bond 2024, Plano ISD Long Range Facility Plan, Celina ISD Bond 2025