If you haven't read our breakdown of Plano's DART exit vote, start there. The background applies to Irving too: four cities voting May 2, 2026, same "we contribute more than we get back" math, same immediate service termination if the vote passes.
But Irving's situation is different in ways that matter.
The Transit Dependency Problem
Plano's relationship with DART is complicated by the Station Areas Plan irony — the city approved transit-oriented development and then scheduled a vote to potentially eliminate the transit.
Irving's relationship is simpler and more dependent. The city's entire investment thesis leans on DART connectivity.
Las Colinas is positioning itself as a "15-minute city" — walkable to work (Wells Fargo's 4,500-employee campus), walkable to entertainment (Toyota Music Factory), walkable to transit (Silver Line to DFW Airport). Take away the Silver Line, and "15-minute city" becomes "15-minute city if you have a car."
Valley Ranch markets the Cypress Waters station as a key amenity — dual-commute households where one partner works in Irving and one in Plano or Richardson. The Silver Line makes that viable without two cars fighting highway traffic.
If Irving leaves DART, both of these value propositions weaken. Not fatally — Wells Fargo isn't leaving, and Valley Ranch still has Coppell ISD — but measurably.
The Renter Variable
Here's what makes Irving's outcome harder to predict than Plano's: Irving is 42% owner-occupied.
That's a renter-heavy city by North Texas suburban standards. And renters vote differently on transit questions. They're more likely to actually use public transit. They're also more transient and less likely to vote in local elections.
So you have a population that's more transit-dependent but less likely to show up at the polls. I don't know which effect dominates. I'm not sure anyone does.
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Take the quizThe Historical Skepticism
Irving has never been DART's most enthusiastic member. The city has periodically grumbled about the contribution-to-service gap for years. This isn't new frustration suddenly reaching a boiling point — it's a long-simmering skepticism finally getting a ballot measure.
Whether that makes a yes vote more likely (the skepticism is real and deep) or less likely (they've grumbled before without leaving) is genuinely unclear.
What This Means for Buyers
If you're buying in Las Colinas for the transit lifestyle: You're betting on the May 2026 vote. The Wells Fargo anchor and Toyota Music Factory don't depend on DART — but the "one-seat ride to DFW Airport" pitch does. If that matters to you, understand the risk.
If you're buying in Valley Ranch for Coppell ISD: The DART vote is secondary. Schools drive value in Valley Ranch, not transit. The Cypress Waters station is a nice-to-have, not the core thesis.
If you're buying in Heritage District or South Irving: DART buses matter more here than the Silver Line. These neighborhoods have higher transit ridership and would feel service cuts more acutely.
The Bottom Line
My read is the same as Plano — this is probably leverage for better terms, not a genuine exit strategy. But Irving's situation has more variables: a renter-heavy electorate, a deeper history of DART skepticism, and a city whose current positioning depends more heavily on transit than Plano's does.
If you're buying in Irving and transit access matters to your decision, the May 2026 vote is a real uncertainty you should price into your thinking. If you're buying for schools (Valley Ranch) or for corporate proximity (Hackberry Creek), it matters less.
The vote is five months away. We'll know more as polling emerges — if any does.