I want to address something that's been bothering me: the "Plano is dead" narrative.
You hear it everywhere. "Plano peaked." "All the growth is north now." "Legacy is so 2010." And if you define "winning" as raw population growth percentage, then sure, Plano isn't winning that particular contest.
But here's the thing about that contest: it's the wrong contest.
Plano has roughly $7.1 billion in active investment right now—including a $650 million voter-approved bond package, the $4 billion Texas Research Quarter life sciences campus, the $1 billion Collin Creek mall redevelopment, the $750 million Haggard Farm project, and a $1.4 billion school bond for facility upgrades. That's not a city in decline. That's a city transitioning from "growth mode" to "protection mode."
And protection mode, it turns out, is often a better deal for homeowners than growth mode.
What "Mature Suburb" Actually Means
Let me try to rehabilitate this phrase because it's become code for "old and boring" when it should be code for "stable and intelligent."
A mature suburb is one that:
Has stopped expanding horizontally. There's no more land to develop. The boundaries are the boundaries. This means the city focuses on improving what exists rather than building more stuff.
Has reached infrastructure equilibrium. The roads are sized for the population. The schools are sized for the population. The services are scaled appropriately. There's no mismatch between what exists and what's needed.
Has entered reinvestment cycles. Instead of building new infrastructure, the city is upgrading existing infrastructure. Better roads, not more roads. Better parks, not more parks.
Has an established tax base. Commercial and residential values are known, stable, and predictable. The city knows what it can afford.
None of these are bad things. They're just not exciting in the way that "fastest-growing city in America" is exciting.
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Take the quizWhat Plano Is Actually Doing
The $650 million city bond package is going toward:
Road rehabilitation. Not new roads—better old roads. This sounds boring until you realize that road quality is one of the primary signals of municipal health. (Drive through a city with bad roads and ask yourself: "Do I want to live here?" Exactly.)
Public safety facilities. Police, fire, infrastructure that protects quality of life.
Infrastructure maintenance. Utilities, drainage, the unsexy stuff that makes a city work.
At the same time, Plano is doing the smart redevelopment plays:
Collin Creek Mall is becoming a mixed-use district instead of rotting like dead malls in other suburbs. (I want to emphasize how hard this is to do. Most cities let dead retail die. Plano is actively converting it into tax-generating density. That's sophisticated urban planning.)
Willow Bend is transforming.
Legacy West is densifying.
This isn't decline. This is a city that can't grow outward choosing to grow smarter instead.
The Risk Comparison Nobody Does
Let me make this concrete with a comparison:
Newer Growth Suburb (Celina, Prosper):
- •High appreciation potential (maybe)
- •High construction chaos (definitely)
- •High uncertainty about what "finished" looks like
- •Higher variance in outcomes
- •Schools are being built, not established
- •Traffic patterns are being figured out, not known
Mature Suburb (Plano):
- •Moderate appreciation potential
- •Predictable environment
- •Known quantities everywhere
- •Lower variance in outcomes
- •Schools are established with track records
- •Traffic patterns are understood
Neither is objectively "better." They're different risk profiles.
But calling Plano "dead" because it's not growing at 15% annually is like calling a blue-chip stock "dead" because it's not a meme stock. You're measuring the wrong thing.
What "Floor Protection" Actually Means
Here's the concept I think people miss about mature suburbs: floor protection.
When a city actively spends capital to maintain quality of life—roads, schools, parks, public safety—it creates a price floor. Homes in that city have downside protection that homes in speculative growth suburbs don't have.
Think about it this way: what happens to home values in Celina if the infrastructure doesn't get built on time and traffic becomes unbearable? They take a hit. What happens to home values in Prosper if the school bond gets rejected and facilities get crowded? They take a hit.
What happens to home values in Plano if... the city continues to do exactly what it's been doing for decades? They stay stable.
That stability is worth something. It's not as exciting as "potential 30% appreciation," but it's also not as risky as "potential 10% decline if things don't work out."
Who Should Buy in Plano
Families who want predictability over upside. If your primary goal is knowing that the school will be good, the commute will be predictable, and the neighborhood will be stable, Plano delivers on that.
Buyers who value established amenities. The restaurants are there. The retail is there. The parks are there. You're not waiting for things to be built.
People allergic to construction zones. If the idea of living near active construction for five years makes you anxious, mature suburbs exist.
Anyone who understands that "boring" often means "stable." This is underrated. Boring is predictable. Predictable is valuable.
Who Shouldn't Buy in Plano
Buyers seeking maximum appreciation. If you're trying to catch the next hot suburb before it takes off, Plano already took off. You missed that part.
People who want the newest everything. Plano's housing stock includes 1980s and 1990s construction. If you want a 2023 build, you're looking north.
Anyone who defines success as "where everyone's moving." That's not Plano anymore. It's also not necessarily where the best values are, but if that's your metric, Plano fails it.
The Bottom Line
Plano isn't dying. It's just not the exciting story anymore.
For a lot of buyers—maybe most buyers—that's exactly the point. They're not buying a growth story. They're buying stability, predictability, and a city that's actively spending to maintain quality of life.
The $7.1 billion in active investment isn't a sign of decline. It's a sign that Plano—both voters and private developers—understands what kind of city it wants to be and is willing to fund it.
That's not something every suburb can say.