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Your McKinney Mental Map Is Probably Wrong

Five years ago, the value hierarchy was clear: downtown charm, West McKinney establishment, Craig Ranch newness. That map is breaking down faster than you think.

August 28, 20257 min read
investment_spotlight

Sunset Amphitheater

McKinney, TX

Investment

$300M

Timeline

2025-2027

Developer

VENU Holding Corporation

Under construction, opening delayed to 2027

20,000-seat open-air amphitheater by VENU at US 75 & SH 121, 70+ shows/year, Troy Aikman Club

Sofee's Take

McKinney's value map is being redrawn. The airport expansion, US-380 bypass, and entertainment district are shifting where value concentrates. The old hierarchy — downtown over everything — is breaking down.

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I have a theory about McKinney that's going to frustrate people who want simple answers: McKinney isn't one market anymore. It's at least three, and they're diverging.

The mental map most people carry around—downtown is charming, West McKinney is established, Craig Ranch is the newer planned community, everything else is secondary—made sense five years ago. It doesn't anymore.

And if you're buying based on the old map, you're probably overpaying for yesterday's value while ignoring tomorrow's.


What the Old Map Got Right

I don't want to dismiss the old hierarchy entirely. It existed for reasons:

Historic downtown had (and still has) genuine charm. The square, the restaurants, the walkability—these are real differentiators that most suburbs can't replicate.

West McKinney had the established neighborhoods with mature trees and known school patterns. If you wanted predictability, this was it.

Craig Ranch had newness, amenities, and a master-planned coherence that appealed to a certain buyer.

This map worked because McKinney's value drivers were stable. The major infrastructure was in place. The growth pattern was predictable.

Then several things happened at once.


The Three Things Reshaping McKinney

1. The Airport Expansion

McKinney National Airport is becoming a commercial aviation hub. (I should note: this is a bigger deal than it sounds. Commercial aviation brings jobs, business travel, and a different kind of economic activity than a regional executive airport.)

What this means for value:

  • Job creation in northeast McKinney, where there wasn't much before
  • Commercial development following the jobs
  • Infrastructure investment flowing to support the airport expansion

Northeast McKinney, which was basically empty five years ago, is now the beneficiary of serious capital inflow. That changes the map.

2. The US-380 Bypass

The northern bypass is doing what bypasses do: it's making previously "too far" areas suddenly accessible while eroding the convenience advantage of areas that benefited from being "on the way."

If you bought in West McKinney partly because it was easy to get to stuff, that advantage is now shared with areas that were 10 minutes further away. The bypass democratized access.

Meanwhile, areas along the new bypass corridor are emerging as development targets. They have the highway access that used to only exist along the old routes.

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3. The Entertainment Gravity Shift

Cannon Beach. Sunset Amphitheater. The amphitheater alone is a 20,000-seat venue that's going to generate regional draw.

(I realize entertainment seems like a frivolous factor for home values. But entertainment creates commercial tax base, which funds schools without raising residential taxes. And regional entertainment—the kind where people drive in from Plano and Frisco—is different from local entertainment. It makes the city a destination rather than just a bedroom community.)

These projects are creating gravity in places that had none. And home values follow gravity.


The New McKinney Map

This is where I frustrate people:

Rising areas:

  • Northeast McKinney (airport proximity, new development corridors)
  • Areas along the new highway corridors (bypass access changing commute math)
  • Neighborhoods near entertainment developments (Cannon Beach effect)

Complicated areas:

  • Older southwest neighborhoods dealing with school consolidation rumors
  • Areas where traffic patterns are shifting unfavorably
  • Neighborhoods that were "convenient" before the bypass but are now just "adequate"

Stable areas:

  • Historic downtown (charm premium is real, but probably fully priced)
  • Craig Ranch (master-planned stability, but upside is limited)

The point isn't that some areas are "bad." The point is that blanket statements about McKinney don't work anymore. "McKinney is great" is about as useful as "California is great"—it might be true in aggregate, but it tells you nothing about where specifically to buy.


The New Framework for McKinney Evaluation

Old framework: "Is it in McKinney? Is the school district good? Cool, probably fine."

New framework:

Where exactly in McKinney? Not just the neighborhood—where relative to infrastructure changes.

What's the capital story for that specific area? Is money flowing toward this location, or is it flowing somewhere else?

How do infrastructure changes affect the location? Is the bypass helping or hurting? Is airport development nearby?

What's the school situation for that zone specifically? Not "McKinney ISD is good" but "what's the feeder pattern and is it stable?"

This is more work than just checking "McKinney = yes." But McKinney is big enough and changing fast enough that the extra work is necessary.


What This Means for Buyers

If you're buying in McKinney, here's my honest advice:

Don't assume proximity to "old premium" areas means premium value. The value hierarchy is reshuffling. Living near historic downtown is still nice, but it's not automatically the best investment anymore.

Look at where new capital is actually flowing. The airport expansion, the bypass, the entertainment investments—these are the new value drivers. Properties aligned with these capital flows will probably outperform properties that aren't.

Consider northern and eastern areas that were dismissed five years ago. They're not secondary anymore. The infrastructure is arriving.

Be cautious about areas losing convenience advantages. If the bypass means your neighborhood is no longer "on the way" to anything, the premium you paid for location might be eroding.


The Uncomfortable Truth

McKinney is still a great suburb. Truly. The schools are strong, the city is well-managed, the growth story is real.

But "great suburb" doesn't mean "every neighborhood is equally great." The mental map needs updating, and the longer buyers wait to update it, the more they'll overpay for yesterday's value while tomorrow's value is sitting in areas they haven't even considered.

The city is diverging. Buy accordingly.